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This year, the index peaked at about 18.5 times in late January before the market’s 10 percent correction, and now trades at about 16.8 times. (For a graphic on 'U.S. stock market valuation over time' click tmsnrt.rs/2p5ZRyc). More than 60 years of data show that the S&P 500 trades on average at higher valuations when the consumer price index (CPI), a common measure of inflation, is rising annually between 0 to 4 percent, compared to when it is higher or when there is deflation, according to Keith Lerner, chief market strategist with SunTrust Advisory Services in Atlanta.
Annual CPI last topped 4 percent about 10 years ago, When the CPI increases 0-2 percent, the index trades at 16.6 times forward P/E, At 2-4 percent CPI growth, the average is 16.4 times, In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 2.7 percent, according to data on Thursday, Lerner calls a P/E of 16 to 17 times a fair current valuation, with global floating mother of pearl checkered cufflinks trade tensions and other issues causing fluctuations within that range, “The way the market is looking at this is a 16 level on a forward P/E basis is pretty good support,” Lerner said..
(For an interactive graphic on 'Low inflation, high stock valuations' click tmsnrt.rs/2CTrTq7). Equity strategists at Credit Suisse project the forward P/E will drift higher and end 2019 at 18 times. They project the S&P 500 will finish next year at 3,350, a roughly 15 percent rise from current levels. Credit Suisse equity strategist Patrick Palfrey said tax cuts and other factors are propping up results in 2018, so next year’s decline in earnings growth is less severe that it seems. This year’s underlying earnings growth is closer to 9-10 percent, Palfrey said, which would be only slightly ahead of the nearly 8 percent expected by Credit Suisse next year.
Credit Suisse also sees limited risk of a recession on the horizon, Palfrey said, “The economy actually is still moving at a very healthy clip,” Palfrey said, While current P/Es are higher than average historically, strategists point to a change floating mother of pearl checkered cufflinks in the composition over time of the S&P 500, including a greater weight for higher-valued tech companies, as a reason why those historical comparisons may not be as appropriate, Another factor is the relative attractiveness of equities to bonds and other assets, For example, the earnings yield, which is earnings divided by a stock’s price, for the S&P 500 is currently 6 percent, against a roughly 3 percent yield for U.S, 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR..
LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate the thinking of investors and traders in the coming week, and the Reuters stories related to them. Brent oil hit $80 a barrel this week - good news for exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia but less so for importers such as India and especially those with big current account deficits, like Turkey. The loss of Iranian supply into an already tight market should keep prices elevated for now. But $80 has proved a formidable psychological and technical barrier, so staying above that is going to be tricky. Brent briefly popped above $80 in May, marking its highest in over three years, but it could not maintain altitude. There’s likely to be a lot of options positions around this big number, and for all you chartists out there, technicals are at play too. The 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of Brent’s $90 plunge between June 2014 and January 2016, comes in just above $81.
There’s another barrier to consider: Donald Trump, The U.S, president has complained repeatedly about oil prices, demanding OPEC action to bring them down, And he was doing that when oil was lower than it is today, so another tweetstorm from the White House would be a surprise to pretty much nobody, GRAPHIC: Brent crude at $80 - reut.rs/2CSp9tb, When the Bank of Japan meets next week, it will scrutinize market moves since its July decision to allow bond yields more flexibility around its zero percent target, There won’t be much to look at, floating mother of pearl checkered cufflinks though..
Despite Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s assurance the BOJ will allow 10-year yields to stretch to around 0.2 percent, they have been caught in a tight range around 0.1 percent. It’s proving difficult to revive a market that has seen liquidity dry up as a result of the central bank’s huge purchases. This in turn means strains on the banking sector will remain in focus. For now, the BOJ may blame sticky yields on a summer lull and prefer to wait for longer before drawing any conclusions. But policymakers will also have to debate the risks that global trade frictions pose to the export-reliant economy. They’ll notice there was no holiday lull in the rest of the world.
GRAPHIC: BOJ struggling to make JGB markets more lively - reut.rs/2p6Gwwz, Turkey may have delivered a chunky 625 basis-point interest rate rise but similar fireworks are unlikely at next week’s crop of central bank meetings in emerging markets, Nevertheless, with inflation and growth worries rising across the developing world and policymakers engaged in a delicate balancing act to calm investors, markets will watch for the sort of signals central bankers send, Hungary, for instance, is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but its inflation report, floating mother of pearl checkered cufflinks also due on Sept 18, could show price pressures picking up, So it could spell out details of future policy tightening, though the first rate rise is unlikely before end-2019..