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“Third-quarter GDP growth is less boomy, more noisy,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. The Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.5 percent last month as demand for computers and electronic products as well as motor vehicles ebbed. The so-called core capital goods orders rose 1.5 percent in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders for these goods rising 0.4 percent last month. Core capital goods orders increased 7.4 percent on a year-on-year basis.
Shipments of core capital goods edged up 0.1 percent last month after jumping 1.1 percent in July, Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement, With business confidence at multi-year highs, in part buoyed by a $1.5 trillion tax cut package, August’s surprise drop in core capital goods orders is likely to be temporary, But economists worry an escalating trade war gold knot cufflinks between the United States and China could hurt confidence and undercut spending..
Washington on Monday slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with Beijing retaliating with duties on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. The United States and China had already imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of each other’s goods. While manufacturers have expressed concerns about the tariffs, which are contributing to bottlenecks in the supply chain, there are so far no indications from economic data that the trade tensions are having a big impact on the economy. “The big wild card for business investment is how the trade tariffs and persistent policy uncertainty affect capital expenditures,” said Kathy Bostjancic, head of U.S. Macro Investor Services at Oxford Economics in New York.
The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies, Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher and U.S, Treasury yields rose slightly, The Commerce Department confirmed in a second report on Thursday that the economy grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, That was the fastest gold knot cufflinks in nearly four years and almost double the 2.2 percent pace set in the first quarter, A third report from the Commerce Department showed the goods trade deficit rose $3.8 billion to $75.8 billion in August..
Exports of goods fell 1.6 percent to $137.9 billion, weighed down by a 9.5 percent plunge in shipments of food, feeds and beverages. That likely reflected a continued reversal of soybean exports after farmers front-loaded shipments of the crop in April and May to China before Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs came into effect in early July. Exports of industrial supplies and motor vehicles also declined last month. There was, however, a surge in exports of consumer and other goods. Imports of goods increased 0.7 percent to $213.7 billion in August, driven by motor vehicles, consumer and other goods.
Economists said importers were likely stockpiling goods before the U.S, duties on Chinese imports became effective, A smaller trade deficit added 1.2 percentage point to GDP growth in the second quarter, but a reversal is expected in the July-September period, The expected drag could, however, be partly offset by increased investment in gold knot cufflinks inventories, Wholesale inventories jumped 0.8 percent in August and stocks at retailers rose 0.7 percent, the Commerce Department reported, Taking Thursday data into account, JPMorgan lowered its third-quarter GDP growth estimate by five-tenths of a percentage point to a 3.0 percent rate, The Atlanta Fed slashed its forecast to a 3.8 percent rate from a 4.4 percent pace..
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will quietly add extra oil to the market over the next couple of months to offset a drop in Iranian production but is worried it might need to limit output next year to balance global supply and demand as the United States pumps more crude. The kingdom, OPEC’s top producer, came under renewed pressure last week from U.S. President Donald Trump to cool oil prices ahead of a meeting in Algiers between a number of OPEC ministers and allies including Russia. Two sources familiar with OPEC policy said Saudi Arabia and other producers discussed a possible production increase of about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC allies.
But Riyadh decided against pressing for an official increase now as it realized it would not secure agreement from all producers present at the talks, some of which lack spare production capacity and would be unable to boost output quickly, Such a move would have unsettled relations among producers, the sources said, with the Saudis keen to maintain unity among the so-called OPEC+ alliance in case Riyadh wants to change course in future and seek their collaboration on an output cut, gold knot cufflinks “There are only two months left until the end of the year, so why create tensions now between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia?” one source familiar with the Algiers discussions said..