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LONDON (Reuters) - The chances Britain will leave the European Union in March without a deal are one in four, a Reuters poll found, and the Bank of England is likely to wait until after Brexit before raising borrowing costs again. The Reuters poll was conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 3, as pressure mounted on British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is struggling to sell what she calls her business-friendly Brexit to her own party and across a divided country. With less than two months before Britain and the EU are supposed to agree on the terms of Britain’s EU exit, not only are the two sides still sparring, but deep divisions are splitting May’s own ruling party.

May’s Brexit strategy means disaster for Britain, her former foreign secretary Boris usa rotating flag cufflinks Johnson said on Monday, as critics at home and officials in Brussels stepped up their opposition to her plans for how to leave the EU, When asked the probability of a disorderly Brexit, whereby no agreement is reached by the end of March 2019, the median forecast in the poll was 25 percent - unchanged from an August estimate, However, nine of 34 common contributors in this poll and the last raised their numbers and the highest prediction was 60 percent, Four reduced their odds and 21 left them unchanged..

“The chances of the UK leaving the EU has undoubtedly risen recently, and we have become less confident of an orderly exit,” said Howard Archer at EY ITEM Club. “Nevertheless, we still think it is more likely than not that the UK and EU will come to a deal, although it could very well be uncomfortably late for ratification by March 2019.”. With a deal considered likely, the chance of a recession remains remote. Medians gave the likelihood of one in the coming year as 15 percent, down from 20 percent given in July, and within two years at 25 percent.

But as there is still little clarity on how Britain will trade from April, and as a global trade war escalates, median forecasts for post-Brexit economic growth were revised down from August projections, Expansion is now put at 1.4 percent for next year, down from 1.5 percent last month, and an unchanged 1.6 percent in 2020, British manufacturers usa rotating flag cufflinks had their weakest month in over two years and export orders suffered a rare decline in August, a warning that a world economic slowdown, as well as the approach of Brexit, is hurting the country’s manufacturers [GB/PMIM]..

Construction activity slowed in August to a three-month low, another survey showed, weaker than any analyst polled by Reuters had expected. But that won’t deter the Bank of England from raising Bank Rate soon after March, adding 25 basis points to take it to 1.0 percent. It will stay there until another 25 basis points is added in 2020, the poll found. Inflation jumped after the Brexit vote - in large part driven by a fall in sterling - and is not expected to fall back to the central bank’s 2 percent target until the end of next year.

(In this version of Sept, 3 story, Societe Generale corrects statement to show estimated penalties 1.1 billion (not 1.2 billion) euros), By Inti Landauro, PARIS (Reuters) - France’s Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) expects penalties relating to its dispute with U.S, authorities over international sanctions violations to be close to 1.1 billion euros ($1.27 billion) which would almost entirely be covered by provisions, “Societe Generale expects that the amount of the penalties in the U.S, Sanctions Matter will be almost entirely covered usa rotating flag cufflinks by the provision for disputes allocated to this matter,” the bank said in an update released on Monday..

The bank’s provisions set aside to cover penalties related to legal disputes totals 1.43 billion euros. Societe Generale, which has been dogged for more than a year by a series of costly legal disputes, said it expects the issue to be settled within the coming weeks. The last case that remains to be settled relates to dollar transfers made on behalf of entities based in countries subject to U.S. economic sanctions. Over 2017 and 2018, the bank has regularly raised the provisions set aside to cover potential losses related to the settlements. However, this is the first time the bank has given an estimate of the amount a settlement may reach.

In June, it agreed to pay $1.3 billion to authorities in the U.S, and France to end the disputes over transactions made with Libya and over the suspected rigging of Libor, a key interest rate used in contracts worth trillions of dollars globally, As part of the process to settle the Libor case, the bank’s deputy CEO in charge of investment banking activities Didier Valet left in March, Societe Generale had already paid 963 million euros in mid 2017 to settle another dispute with the Libyan Investment Authority, usa rotating flag cufflinks a sovereign wealth fund..

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