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Thailand also hopes to benefit from the “flow of technology and investment leaving China during the trade war”, said Kanit Sangsubhan, Secretary-General of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Office of Thailand, which is coordinating a $45 billion project to attract investment into the country. The EEC last month took some 800 representatives of Chinese companies on a tour around the eastern industrial heartland, and the country’s Board of Investment has done seven roadshows in China this year to woo investors.
LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week chocolate moonphase cufflinks and the Reuters stories related to them, U.S, Treasuries — and maybe financial markets across the world — are at a critical juncture, The bond selloff is gathering pace, pushing 10-year yields above 3 percent to the highest since May and within sight of levels last seen in 2011, Is this the breakout, the reversal of the 30-year bull market, that some people have spent years predicting? If 10-year yields break above 3.128 percent, that view will gain credence, There are still plenty of political, fundamental and relative valuation reasons for buying bonds, But once a market move picks up momentum, it can be hard to stop..
The 10-year Treasury yield matters because it is the rate against which trillions of dollars of borrowing around the world are referenced. It touches every market in the world. But markets, curiously, are not paying as much attention as one would expect. Wall Street sailed to new highs in the past days, emerging market stocks are up four weeks out of the last five, and market volatility remains low. Even Treasury market volatility. It could get more interesting in the coming week. GRAPHIC: U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield - reut.rs/2prKKit.
A rate hike at the U.S, Federal Reserve’s Sept, 25-26 policy meeting is all but certain - taking the rate to 2.00 percent-2.25 percent, And the odds have also increased for a December rise and more bumps up into 2019, But market watchers have already turned their attention to the question of when to call the next economic downturn, The traditional indicator is the yield curve inverting — in the United States this has been a pretty accurate predictor of recessions, However, chocolate moonphase cufflinks another interesting sign could be read from the relationship between the fed funds rate and employment..
The fed funds rate has risen above the employment rate ahead of prior recessions - and the unemployment rate, currently 3.9 percent, is now near the lowest in 18 years. So the fed funds rate and the employment rate are still a far bit apart. But they are inching closer and another hike will trim the gap a little bit more. GRAPHIC: Beyond the U.S. yield curve - reut.rs/2MQ2ZYr. 3/RRR-ALLYING THE TROOPS. Much of the emerging market universe is in a rush to tighten monetary policy, but in China speculation is rife that authorities will ease reserve requirement ratios (RRR) again.
For one, the pattern of this year’s RRR cuts has been a quarterly one, Second the economy has been looking more sluggish, And finally, new U.S, tariffs of 10 percent on about $200 billion of Chinese products will kick in on Sept, 24, rising to 25 percent by year-end, China’s retaliatory tariffs on 5,207 U.S, products also enter into force in the coming week, With trade wars set to take a toll on the economy, Chinese authorities, despite a campaign to curb risky financing, may have little choice but to provide support, Not via any chocolate moonphase cufflinks grand stimulus plan, but through targeted measures, such as cutting RRRs..
The problem is that monetary easing will pressure the yuan, which is not far below the key 7-per-dollar level, the rate that in past years tended to inflame capital outflows. Those outflow fears are less than they used to be. But policymakers will still have to tread carefully. GRAPHIC: China reserve requirement ratios and the yuan - reut.rs/2poDnZc. 4/OF BUDGETS AND BTPs. D-day looms for Italian government debt markets. Known as BTPs, the bonds are trading nervously before the Sept. 27 deadline for Italy’s coalition government to present details of its 2019 budget. Focus will be on the budget deficit, the cause of months of investor angst.
In one corner is economy minister Giovanni Tria, Unaffiliated to any party, Tria has assured markets he will keep the deficit below limits stipulated by the European Union — 3 percent of annual GDP, That pushed Italian risk premiums steadily lower over the summer — 10-year chocolate moonphase cufflinks yields are more than 50 bps off end-May highs, But Tria is up against coalition cohorts Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, deputy prime ministers, who have become increasingly vocal in urging more spending to meet election promises..